Depending on which headline you read, Rolex is either losing control of the watch market or beginning to collapse. Neither interpretation accurately describes what is happening.
Rolex remains the dominant name in the secondary watch market. What has changed is the behavior of the people buying watches—and that may be a healthier development for collecting.
The new Chrono24 Rolex Report 2026, based on completed transactions from 2018 through the second quarter of 2026, shows that Rolex’s share of dollar sales on the platform has fallen from a pandemic-era peak of approximately 44% to around 31%.
That sounds dramatic until the rest of the data is considered.
Those are not the numbers of a collapsing brand. They describe a market leader whose extraordinary pandemic-era concentration has returned closer to normal.
Market share is relative. If buyers begin spending more money on Cartier, Vacheron Constantin, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Omega, and independent brands, Rolex’s percentage can decline without collectors abandoning Rolex.
That appears to be what is happening. Rolex still leads every Chrono24 price category above $5,000, but rival brands have recovered some of the ground they lost during the sports-watch frenzy.
During the pandemic boom, a small group of Rolex models became financial and cultural symbols. The Submariner, Daytona, and GMT-Master II were not simply watches; they became speculative assets, social-media trophies, and shorthand for success.
The speculative premium has cooled. The underlying appeal of Rolex has not disappeared.
Buyers under 30 still allocate more of their watch spending to Rolex than any other age group—approximately 34%. At the 2022 peak, however, that group directed roughly half of its watch spending toward the brand.
This does not mean younger buyers suddenly dislike Rolex. It means Rolex is no longer automatically consuming most of their collecting budget.
Younger collectors are exploring dressier watches, vintage references, independent brands, and alternatives from established manufacturers. Instead of treating one steel sports Rolex as the final destination, they are building more varied collections.
That is an important shift. A healthy collecting culture should encourage curiosity rather than funnel every buyer toward the same handful of references.
The biggest Rolex story may not be the decline in overall market share. It may be the rise of the Datejust.
The Submariner, GMT-Master II, and Daytona remain enormously desirable, but the Datejust has become Rolex’s largest revenue-producing collection on Chrono24 at approximately 28%.
That suggests buyers are moving toward versatility and personal choice. The Datejust is available in multiple sizes, metals, bezels, bracelets, and dial configurations. It can function as a daily watch, dress watch, milestone purchase, or vintage entry point without depending entirely on professional-sports-watch mythology.
The Datejust has always been important. What has changed is that the market is beginning to recognize its importance without requiring the same hype that surrounded steel sports models.
Chrono24’s report covers its own marketplace, not every secondary-market transaction worldwide. That distinction matters.
WatchPro’s analysis notes that broader EveryWatch data—which includes auctions, certified pre-owned programs, eBay, Watchfinder, Chrono24, and other platforms—places Rolex at approximately 41% of total secondary-market transaction value during the first half of 2026.
In other words, Rolex remains exceptionally powerful. The 31% figure should not be treated as the brand’s share of every watch sold everywhere.
The more accurate conclusion is that Rolex remains the leader, but collectors are no longer allowing one brand to dominate the entire conversation.
For collectors, a less concentrated market creates more opportunity.
None of this means that Rolex watches are suddenly poor purchases. Rolex still offers strong design continuity, broad recognition, serviceability, durability, and secondary-market liquidity.
It means buyers should evaluate each watch on its own merits instead of assuming that every Rolex is automatically an investment or that every non-Rolex watch is financially inferior.
The pandemic period produced extraordinary interest in watches, but it also narrowed collecting around a small number of models. When everyone is chasing the same watches for the same reasons, collecting begins to resemble speculation.
A market in which collectors explore Rolex, Omega, Cartier, Grand Seiko, vintage watches, microbrands, and independent watchmakers is more interesting and ultimately more sustainable.
Rolex is not collapsing. The pandemic premium has normalized, the field around Rolex has become more competitive, and collectors are becoming more selective.
The Crown still leads. It simply no longer owns every collector’s imagination—and that may be good for the entire watch world.
This shift also supports a broader issue discussed in why the watch industry needs to listen to collectors before prices go too far.
What do you think? Are collectors genuinely moving beyond Rolex, or is the market simply returning to normal after an unusual period? Join the discussion in the Rehaut 1775 community.
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